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Greenback Carrying Bulk of Post-Fed Weakness

FOREX
  • The greenback is carrying the bulk of the post-Fed losses, and remains weaker against all others in G10 headed through to the NY crossover. The USD Index has shed around 0.75% from the week's highs, however the bearish engulfing candle pattern posted on Oct24 continues to weigh on EUR/USD. The 50-dma resistance for the pair sits ahead at 1.0639, a break above which is needed to ignite any more positive momentum.
  • EUR/NOK trades back to flat having reversed a brief post-Norges Bank rate decision (kept rates unchanged at 4.25%, as expected) spike as markets retain the view that a December rate hike is most likely, despite a moderation in language pointing to a potential hold later this year should inflation moderate faster than expected.
  • The Bank of England decision takes focus going forward, with the MPC seen keeping rates unchanged, with the main driving factor likely to be the vote breakdown. If there are less than three hawkish dissenters we could see a small dovish reaction in markets. If Dhingra votes for a cut, we could also see a small dovish reaction. Conversely if there is another 5-4 split this could see a hawkish market outcome (amplified even further if it was someone other than Breeden switching their voting intention).
  • The weekly US jobless claims data, September factory orders and the final durable goods orders mark the data highlights for the day. BoE's Bailey holds a post-decision press conference, with speeches also scheduled from Fed's Paese and ECB's Schnabel.
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