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Greenback Falters, NZD Firms Pre-RBNZ

FOREX
  • The greenback faltered Friday, but respected the recent range to post an uneventful close. The USD faded despite a higher high for 10y yields posted ahead of the London close at 3.8215%.
  • CAD was the poorest performer, however the price action is yet to buck the recent bearish price action in USD/CAD, which resulted in new multi-month lows and confirmed a resumption of the current downtrend. This also marks an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
  • GBP outperformed for much of the Friday session, getting an early tailwind from marginally better--than-expected retail sales. The price action extended the recovery off the post-Autumn Statement lows, and helped EUR/GBP break lower and out of the recent right range.
  • NZD was among the session's best performers, with markets pre-positioning ahead of next week's expected 75bps RBNZ rate hike to 4.25%.
  • Focus in the coming week turns to the Riksbank rate decision, at which the bank are expected to raise rates by a further 75bps to put the policy rate at 2.50%.
  • Market volumes and liquidity are expected to thin headed into the end of next week, with the US enjoying the Thanksgiving holiday break.
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