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Greenback Slides as Banking Fallout Seen Crimping Fed Hiking Plans

FOREX
  • The US dollar is comfortably the poorest performer across G10, sliding against all others as markets pull back on implied rate hike pricing. For the Fed's March meeting, markets are now pricing in a solid chance of no change and a possible pause in the rate hike cycle. The USD Index is narrowing in on first key support at the 50-dma at 103.469 - a break below here opens levels not seen since mid-February.
  • The moves follow the formal failure of both Silicon Valley Bank and Siganture Bank, with concerns that the Federal package announced by authorities over the weekend pushes to protect depositers, but falls short of any protection for equity or bond holders. Market focus turns to any further evidence of possible contagion across the global banking sector, as European banks slide sharply in one-way price action through the opening bell.
  • Haven currencies are the notable outperformers, with JPY and CHF among the strongest in G10. USD/JPY has slipped to 133.56 while USD/CHF shows below 0.9150 for the first time since February 14th.
  • The data and speaker slate is particularly light, with just an appearance from BoE's Dhingra on the docket. Both the ECB and Fed remain within their pre-meeting media blackout periods.
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