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Greenback Stabilises Ahead of Payrolls

FOREX
  • The greenback has stabilised close to yesterday's lows, with the USD Index within range of intraday support at 106.3214 - a break below which opens Monday's 106.0444 for direction. Macro data and headline flow has been few and far between early Friday, leaving markets to continue to absorb the run higher and steepening of the US curve across the week.
  • JPY is the poorest performer in G10, reversing the bulk of the Thursday move lower in USD/JPY. This keeps prices at around the midpoint of the Wednesday pullback, but a rally would again test the Y150.00 level at which markets remain cautious about potential intervention from the Japanese authorities.
  • GBP/USD is firmer for a third session, printing a third session of higher highs to recover above the $1.2200 handle. The bounce is considered corrective for now, with the broader trend condition remaining negative for now. Technical focus remains on the likely formation of a death cross in DMA space, with the 50-dma on course to break below the 200-dma in the coming week or so, which would mark the first formation of the pattern since late 2021.
  • Focus Friday rests on the September NFP release, with markets expecting the US to have added around 170k jobs across the month, however the market whisper number and the primary dealer survey are more optimistic, looking for 190k and 180k respectively. Beyond the headline, markets are looking to gauge any rebalancing in the labour market - particularly via wages, which are expected to re-accelerate to 0.3% this month.
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