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Greenback Weakness Drags USD Index Back Below 200-Day Moving Average

FOREX
  • A weaker than expected second reading of Q2 GDP in the US prompted another session of weakness for the greenback, extending on Tuesday’s declines following similarly soft data. Broad dollar weakness has seen the USD index briefly slide back below the 200-day moving average and hit the lowest level in two weeks ahead of further key data this week.
  • Less optimistic price action in equities relative to Tuesday’s session has seen the likes of AUD and NZD trade lower, countering the theme of broad dollar weakness but extensions for EUR and GBP have been notable, both rising around half a percent.
  • Recent bearish technical outlooks for both EURUSD and GBPUSD are now being tested with the former recovery from the channel base extending and the latter piercing resistance at the 20-day EMA. Potential profit taking ahead of the key jobs data on Friday could well be exacerbating the price momentum for both pairs.
  • With the slightly backward looking US data, the impact on US yields has been more moderate than Tuesday’s significant bull steepening move. Thus, despite USDJPY briefly making a new low for the week at 145.56, actually sits a little higher on the day around 146.20 as we approach the APAC crossover.
  • China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs headline the overnight docket on Thursday, before French and Eurozone CPI data. The greenback and broader currency markets will remain focused on the key data releases due later this week - NFP, Core PCE and ISM.
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