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Grinds Higher

TWD

USD/TWD has ground higher through the session on Friday, the move supported by some resilience in the US dollar. The move higher has spiked volatility in TWD which had fallen amid conjecture that the central bank was attempting to guide the currency. USD/TWD last at 27.981.


USD/TWD historical volatility


  • There has been increased speculation that the CBRC are intervening in the FX market, despite Taiwan being on the US Treasury's currency manipulator watchlist. TWD routinely swings into the close, keeping the currency near unchanged levels on the day, only for this move to be reversed in the following trading session.
  • Relentless flows into Taiwanese equity markets are propping up TWD, though there have been signs that this trend is slowing; the 5-day moving average of net foreign inflows decreased to $180.8m yesterday, falling below the 20-day average of $243.7m, but year to data flows are still some $2.79bn.
  • There are $100m of 27.97 USD/TWD puts rolling off tomorrow.

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