GS: Below Consensus For Payrolls

Jobs Growth Tends To Slow During The Spring Hiring Season When Labor Market Tight

• Goldman see payrolls up 350k in April (private 325k), a slowdown from the +562k average pace in Q1.
• “Labor demand remains very strong and dining activity has returned to normal, but job growth tends to slow during the spring hiring season when the labor market is tight” whilst big data indicators saw a net deterioration.
• April seasonal factors have evolved favorably in recent years and represent a tailwind of roughly 100k.
• They estimate a one-tenth drop in the u/e rate to 3.5%, reflecting a solid or strong rise in household employment partially offset by another 0.1pp rise in labor force participation to 62.5%.
• AHE growth is seen at 0.4% M/M, lowering the year-ago rate a tenth to 5.5% Y/Y, with upward pressure from labor shortages (albeit less than fall/winter) and a modest boost in April from calendar effects.