Free Trial
USDCAD TECHS

Doji Candle Pattern Highlights Bullish Reversal

US TSYS

10YY Well Below 3.0%

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

GS: Below Consensus For Payrolls

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Jobs Growth Tends To Slow During The Spring Hiring Season When Labor Market Tight

  • Goldman see payrolls up 350k in April (private 325k), a slowdown from the +562k average pace in Q1.
  • “Labor demand remains very strong and dining activity has returned to normal, but job growth tends to slow during the spring hiring season when the labor market is tight” whilst big data indicators saw a net deterioration.
  • April seasonal factors have evolved favorably in recent years and represent a tailwind of roughly 100k.
  • They estimate a one-tenth drop in the u/e rate to 3.5%, reflecting a solid or strong rise in household employment partially offset by another 0.1pp rise in labor force participation to 62.5%.
  • AHE growth is seen at 0.4% M/M, lowering the year-ago rate a tenth to 5.5% Y/Y, with upward pressure from labor shortages (albeit less than fall/winter) and a modest boost in April from calendar effects.
152 words

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.

Jobs Growth Tends To Slow During The Spring Hiring Season When Labor Market Tight

  • Goldman see payrolls up 350k in April (private 325k), a slowdown from the +562k average pace in Q1.
  • “Labor demand remains very strong and dining activity has returned to normal, but job growth tends to slow during the spring hiring season when the labor market is tight” whilst big data indicators saw a net deterioration.
  • April seasonal factors have evolved favorably in recent years and represent a tailwind of roughly 100k.
  • They estimate a one-tenth drop in the u/e rate to 3.5%, reflecting a solid or strong rise in household employment partially offset by another 0.1pp rise in labor force participation to 62.5%.
  • AHE growth is seen at 0.4% M/M, lowering the year-ago rate a tenth to 5.5% Y/Y, with upward pressure from labor shortages (albeit less than fall/winter) and a modest boost in April from calendar effects.