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GS Eye BoC Cuts Starting 3Q24 With Quarterly Pace

CANADA
  • Goldman Sachs from their 2024 outlook note that “Inflation progress should keep the BoC on hold until they initiate rate cuts, which we anticipate will begin in 2024Q3.”
  • “We forecast that rate cuts will then proceed at a quarterly pace until the policy rate ultimately settles at 3.5%, a level comfortably above the BoC’s current 2-3% neutral rate estimate.”
  • “We see risks to our baseline forecast as skewed toward lower rates. In addition to inflation progress lowering the hurdle for rate cuts to offset negative growth surprises, the BoC may be quicker than other central banks to enact normalization cuts given its emphasis on real rates levels in determining policy, its tendency to move quickly and surprise markets, and the larger increase in the Canadian unemployment rate so far this cycle.”
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