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GS on CEE FX

EM FX
  • While CE3 currencies are likely to remain sensitive to the conflict’s developments going forward, GS expect the hawkish CB stance to remain a key FX support.
  • Beneath the surface, while HUF and PLN had been trading closely together (both when the conflict escalated and as they retraced), over the last week they have diverged with the PLN outperforming its peers on the back of the NBP’s larger-than-expected hike and signalling that policy rates may stay sustainably elevated, whereas the Forint has underperformed following reports that the EU will soon trigger the rule-of-law disciplinary procedure against Hungary.
  • While GS economists believe that Hungary will eventually make concessions on 'rule-of-law' issues, headline risk for HUF is likely to remain until an agreement is clearer.
  • CZK tends to be the region’s “safer hiker” with lower political risk and the highest pool of FX reserves, though risk-reward in spot terms is now somewhat less-compelling after a retracement in EUR/CZK from early-March highs.
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