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GS Sees A 75bps Hike on April 6

POLAND
  • GS expects the Council to deliver a second consecutive 75bp rate hike, from +3.50% to +4.25% (Consensus: +4.00%).
  • In the last MPC meeting, the NBP delivered a hawkish surprise, raising rates by 75bp to +3.50%.
  • The decision came after intense pressures on the currency and the NBP signaled that it stood ready to raise rates more than once a month if these pressures intensified and persisted.
  • Friday's large inflation surprise suggests high inflation in Poland is far from under control, and GS thinks that the NBP needs to continue tightening policy relatively aggressively in response.
  • GS forecast implies that rates in Poland will rise to at least +5.50%, with strong inflation dynamics persisting in the near-term.

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