MNI BRIEF: BOJ To Focus On Continued Positive Wage Setting

MNI BRIEF: Japan Q2 GDP To Rise 0.5% Q/Q; 2.2% Annualised

MNI BRIEF: China Retains Ample Policy Space In H2 – NDRC

MNI BRIEF: Caixin July Manufacturing PMI Falls Below 50

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY224.73 Bln via OMO Thursday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1323 Thurs; -0.83% Y/Y

VDMA Factory Orders Remain Weak in June

IFO Employment Lower Again

Swiss July CPI Preview - Expected Below SNB Q3 Projections

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Harris Overtakes Trump In PredictIt Election Odds

WHITE HOUSE
Homepagemarkets-real-timePolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsPolitical Market News

Political share-trading site PredictIt shows Vice President and likely Democratic presidential nominee overtaking Republican nominee former President Donald Trump for the first time as nationwide swing-state polling has indicated increasing support for Harris (albeit with the outcome still too-close-to-call).

  • PredictIt assigns a 53% implied probability of winning the election, compared to 49% for Trump (sums to more than 100 due to rounding).
  • Political betting markets at Smarkets and Polymarket continue to show Trump as the favourite, leading with implied probabilities of 54.4% to 43.5% (Smarkets) and 55% to 43% (Polymarket). In both markets, Trump's implied probability of winning has fallen since Biden dropped out of the race from a peak of around 70%.
  • Today, Trump speaks at a rally in Harrisburg, PA with focus on the fallout to hiscontroversial comments regarding Harris' racial profile made at the National Association of Black Journalist's rountable in Chicago, IL on 31 July. Harris will speak at a rally in Houston, TX, with GOP VP candidate JD Vance in Glendale, AZ.

Chart 1. Implied Probability of US Presidential Election Winner, (US cents = %)

Keep reading...Show less
196 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Political share-trading site PredictIt shows Vice President and likely Democratic presidential nominee overtaking Republican nominee former President Donald Trump for the first time as nationwide swing-state polling has indicated increasing support for Harris (albeit with the outcome still too-close-to-call).

  • PredictIt assigns a 53% implied probability of winning the election, compared to 49% for Trump (sums to more than 100 due to rounding).
  • Political betting markets at Smarkets and Polymarket continue to show Trump as the favourite, leading with implied probabilities of 54.4% to 43.5% (Smarkets) and 55% to 43% (Polymarket). In both markets, Trump's implied probability of winning has fallen since Biden dropped out of the race from a peak of around 70%.
  • Today, Trump speaks at a rally in Harrisburg, PA with focus on the fallout to hiscontroversial comments regarding Harris' racial profile made at the National Association of Black Journalist's rountable in Chicago, IL on 31 July. Harris will speak at a rally in Houston, TX, with GOP VP candidate JD Vance in Glendale, AZ.

Chart 1. Implied Probability of US Presidential Election Winner, (US cents = %)

Keep reading...Show less