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Harris Overtakes Trump In PredictIt Election Odds

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Political share-trading site PredictIt shows Vice President and likely Democratic presidential nominee overtaking Republican nominee former President Donald Trump for the first time as nationwide swing-state polling has indicated increasing support for Harris (albeit with the outcome still too-close-to-call).

  • PredictIt assigns a 53% implied probability of winning the election, compared to 49% for Trump (sums to more than 100 due to rounding).
  • Political betting markets at Smarkets and Polymarket continue to show Trump as the favourite, leading with implied probabilities of 54.4% to 43.5% (Smarkets) and 55% to 43% (Polymarket). In both markets, Trump's implied probability of winning has fallen since Biden dropped out of the race from a peak of around 70%.
  • Today, Trump speaks at a rally in Harrisburg, PA with focus on the fallout to hiscontroversial comments regarding Harris' racial profile made at the National Association of Black Journalist's rountable in Chicago, IL on 31 July. Harris will speak at a rally in Houston, TX, with GOP VP candidate JD Vance in Glendale, AZ.

Chart 1. Implied Probability of US Presidential Election Winner, (US cents = %)

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Political share-trading site PredictIt shows Vice President and likely Democratic presidential nominee overtaking Republican nominee former President Donald Trump for the first time as nationwide swing-state polling has indicated increasing support for Harris (albeit with the outcome still too-close-to-call).

  • PredictIt assigns a 53% implied probability of winning the election, compared to 49% for Trump (sums to more than 100 due to rounding).
  • Political betting markets at Smarkets and Polymarket continue to show Trump as the favourite, leading with implied probabilities of 54.4% to 43.5% (Smarkets) and 55% to 43% (Polymarket). In both markets, Trump's implied probability of winning has fallen since Biden dropped out of the race from a peak of around 70%.
  • Today, Trump speaks at a rally in Harrisburg, PA with focus on the fallout to hiscontroversial comments regarding Harris' racial profile made at the National Association of Black Journalist's rountable in Chicago, IL on 31 July. Harris will speak at a rally in Houston, TX, with GOP VP candidate JD Vance in Glendale, AZ.

Chart 1. Implied Probability of US Presidential Election Winner, (US cents = %)

Keep reading...Show less