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Harris Poll Shows Le Pen Gaining On Macron In 2nd Round Scenario

FRANCE

The latest Harris Poll shows President Emmanuel Macron just 6% ahead of right-wing National Rally leader Marine Le Pen in a hypothetical scenario poll for the second round of next year's presidential election.

  • Presidential election poll (2nd round): Macron (LREM): 53 % (-1), Le Pen (RN): 47 % (+1). Fieldwork 7 June 21, Changes w/ 28-31 May 21.
  • Betting markets continue to see Macron as the most likely victor, with data from SMarkets giving Macron a 56% implied probability of remaining as president according to bettors.

Chart 1. Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election? Betting Market Implied Probability, %

Source: Smarkets

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