Harris With Slight Edge In Toss-Up Race, YouGov MRP Poll

YouGov has publishedits first ‘multilevel regression with post-stratification’ (MRP) model of the 2024 presidential election, concluding that Harris has a very slight lead over Trump.

• YouGov: “This is the first release of our model estimating 2024 presidential election votes in every state, based upon nearly 100,000 recent interviews of registered voters. We show Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 50% to 47% just before their first debate. However, the race will be determined by who wins the most electoral votes, not popular votes, and, as it currently stands, the race is a toss-up. We have Harris leading in 22 states and Washington D.C. with 256 electoral votes and Trump leading in 25 states with 235 electoral vote.”
• YouGov adds: “We caution that these models are based upon what people tell us they plan to do. A small share of registered voters (6%) say they are undecided, but the majority tell us their minds are made up. However, people can change their minds and, if they do, we should see these changes reflected in our model updates. These results reflect our best estimate of the current state of the race.”

Figure 1: Electoral College Model