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(Z1) Off Lows, But Remains Weak


Still Vulnerable


Bullish Price Sequence

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Dovish repricing of RBNZ bets has applied some pressure to the kiwi, making it the worst performer in G10 FX space. Assistant Governor Hawkesby signalled the Reserve Bank's cautious approach to raising the OCR, noting that "when there is a typical amount of uncertainty, and the risks are evenly balanced, then central banks globally tend to follow a smoothed path and keep their policy rate unchanged or move in 25 basis point increments." Market pricing no longer points to participants sitting on the fence re: October monetary policy meeting, with the OIS strip now pricing exactly 25bp worth of tightening at the upcoming MPC gathering, which is tantamount to one standard sized OCR hike.

  • Some of the resultant pressure to the NZD may have been offset by a marginal uptick in risk sentiment, with other G10 commodity-tied currencies (CAD, NOK, AUD) able to register some gains. Although equity benchmarks in Japan and Australia have faltered on a negative lead from Wall Street, e-mini futures have edged higher. Reduced demand for safe haven currencies has weighed on the yen to a degree.
  • Regional liquidity and headline flow are limited by market closures in China, Taiwan and South Korea. China and Taiwan will reopen tomorrow.
  • The Asia-Pac docket for the remainder of the session is headlined by minutes from the RBA's September monetary policy meeting and Japan's final machine tool orders.
  • U.S. housing starts & current account balance, Riksbank MonPol decision and comments from ECB Vice Pres de Guindos will take focus later in the day.