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Hawkish Comments From BoE's Haskel & Fed's Waller Filter Into GBP Rates

STIR

SONIA futures are 0.5-4.5bp lower.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~71bp of ’24 cuts vs. ~75bp at yesterday’s close.
  • Hawkish comments from Fed’s Waller weighed on core global bond markets overnight.
  • Elsewhere, an FT interview with former BoE hawkish dissenter Haskel was on the hawkish side.
  • Haskel believes that rate cuts are “a long way off”.
  • He also pointed to his preference for gradualist policy approach at present, stressing the need to focus on underlying inflation measures, alongside measures of persistence. Some “improvement” in those measures factored into his vote change.
  • His comments aren’t particularly surprising given his historical stance.
  • This week’s comments from Mann & Haskel leave both of the former hawkish dissenters at the hawkish end of the MPC spectrum.
  • Elsewhere, headline final Q4 UK GDP data was in line with expectations/initial readings.
  • The local calendar is now limited ahead of the long Easter weekend.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-245.153-3.7
Jun-245.028-16.2
Aug-244.878-31.1
Sep-244.755-43.5
Nov-244.602-58.8
Dec-244.477-71.3
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SONIA futures are 0.5-4.5bp lower.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~71bp of ’24 cuts vs. ~75bp at yesterday’s close.
  • Hawkish comments from Fed’s Waller weighed on core global bond markets overnight.
  • Elsewhere, an FT interview with former BoE hawkish dissenter Haskel was on the hawkish side.
  • Haskel believes that rate cuts are “a long way off”.
  • He also pointed to his preference for gradualist policy approach at present, stressing the need to focus on underlying inflation measures, alongside measures of persistence. Some “improvement” in those measures factored into his vote change.
  • His comments aren’t particularly surprising given his historical stance.
  • This week’s comments from Mann & Haskel leave both of the former hawkish dissenters at the hawkish end of the MPC spectrum.
  • Elsewhere, headline final Q4 UK GDP data was in line with expectations/initial readings.
  • The local calendar is now limited ahead of the long Easter weekend.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-245.153-3.7
Jun-245.028-16.2
Aug-244.878-31.1
Sep-244.755-43.5
Nov-244.602-58.8
Dec-244.477-71.3