‘Hawkish’ NBH Halts TRYHUF Momentum

• Until the recent NBH meeting on Tuesday, the HUF was the worst performing currency among the CEEMEA market, and was down nearly 3.50% against the US Dollar in the end of last end due to the rising inflationary pressures in addition to the series of legal dispute with the EU.
• On the other hand, the 'improvement in coordination' between Erdogan and the CBRT has led to some positive momentum in TRY this month, which is the best performing currency (up nearly 3% against the USD).
• Next big TRY even is CPI coming out next week (Aug 3rd), expecting to increase to 18.67% in July (up from 17.53% the previous month).
• Hence, the recent HUF strength following the NBH decision has halted the strong momentum on TRYHUF we saw in the first half of July.
• The pair has been testing its 100DMA resistance at 35.65 in the past few days; a break above that level would open the door for a move up to 36. Another key resistance stands at 36.33, which represents the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the 32.28 – 42.89 range.
• On the downside, first support stands at 35, followed by 34.78 (23.6% Fibo).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI