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Hays Profit Warning A Risk Across Staffing Sector

CREDIT UPDATE

Hays Group, the UK recruitment firm, issued 4Q23 trading stmt with weak figures and a real warning around Dec-23 performance.

  1. By geography, German fees were flat, UK & Ireland down 17%, Aus & NZ down 20% and RoW 11% lower (largely driven by Americas). Mgmt is cutting costs internally and indicates early '24 trading expected to remain challenging.
  2. Its immediate competitor, Adecco, is the only meaningful credit name directly comparable (PageGroup and SThree have little/no debt)... Adecco is much more France & Southern Europe (vs. Germany/UK/Ire at Hays) but still likely some comparability.
  3. ADENVX (Baa1[S]/BBB+[S]/NR) is showing little credit traded so far this morning but, over the last month, has generally tightened OASs. The credit isn't hugely liquid but ManPower (Baa1[S]/BBB[S]/NR) in the US has seen its debt trade the other way over the last month to trade almost directly inline with ADEN, so could be risk to both levels.

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