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Headline Consumer Sentiment Dips Further, Inflation Expectations Steady

SOUTH KOREA

South Korean consumer sentiment dipped in terms of the headline measure for September. We are back to 99.7 from 103.1 in August. We are above earlier lows from 2023, but the run of improvement in the headline index has clearly come to an end. Note tomorrow we get the October reads for manufacturing and services business sentiment from the BOK.

  • The first chart below overlays the headline consumer sentiment reading against y/y South Korean GDP growth. It's still pointing to some improvement in y/y momentum, but the rebound is likely to below what we saw in 2021.
  • In terms of the detail, most indicators around the domestic economy ticked down, along with employment. Consumer spending plans also slipped. Measures are above earlier 2023 lows though.

Fig 1: South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index & GDP Y/Y

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/BOK

  • On the price side, the expected inflation level held steady for the third straight month at 3.3%. Headline inflation has rebounded back to 3.4% y/y. Note the September CPI data comes out on October the 5th.
  • The expected housing price level rose further to 110 from 107. Expected wages ticked down slightly.

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