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Headline Inflation Data Moderately Below Median Estimate

COLOMBIA
  • Colombian inflation accelerated less than expected in February, however, policymakers remain under pressure as core price increases continued to gain pace. The consumer price index rose 13.28% in February from a year earlier, the fastest increase since 1999, the statistics agency said Saturday.
    • Colombia Feb. Consumer Prices Rise 1.66% M/m, Est. +1.68%
    • Colombia Feb. Consumer Prices Rise 13.28% M/m, Est. +13.36%
    • Colombia Feb. Core CPI Rises 1.67% M/m
    • Colombia Feb. Core CPI Rises 10.86% Y/y
  • JPMorgan forecast the peak for the policy rate at 13.25%, however, the risk is skewed for another 25bp in April (thus 13.5% peak) if CPI does not stabilize as expected.
  • JPMorgan stated their central scenario entertains annual headline CPI to start inching lower in March (to 13.16%oya), converging to 7.7%oya by December 2023, predicated on a strong food deflation and a rapid normalization in core goods to offset strong services prices and prevailing indexation of some regulated prices. But core (ex.-food/energy) is expected to peak in March (at 10.5%oya), hovering around 10% in 2Q23, so to decline only early 2H23.
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