Heavy In Trade Ahead Of The Weekend, Mixed Employment Data

TYU3 resumes trading at 113-22+, a decline of -4+ from NY closing levels, after weakening sharply in NY trading ahead of the weekend. Tsy futures finished near late session lows after mixed employment data: strong May jobs gains and up-revisions for prior two data sets, versus a higher unemployment level.

• Employment gains in Household were the weakest since April 2022, and the "beat" of Establishment employment (+339k) vs Household (-310k) of 649k was the widest since April 2020.
• TYU3 broke support on its way to session low of 113-25 (-30.5). The next key support level and the bear trigger is 112-29+, the May 26 / 30 low, according to MNI’s technical team.
• FOMC-dated OIS implied rates have faded from post-payrolls highs and haven't meaningfully changed odds of a 25bp hike on Jun 14, whilst the July terminal doesn't quite fully price in another hike with +22bps.
• There weren’t any Fed pop-up appearances before the media blackout deadline, leaving markets continuing to weigh up Jefferson and Harker's skip narrative after an inconclusive payrolls report whilst ultimately waiting on CPI on day one of the Jun 13-14 meeting.