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HICP Tracking 2.7-2.8% Y/Y, Core 3.2-3.3%, Analysts Eye Risks


After national inflation data received so far in the January flash round has surprised to the upside in Spain, but came in slightly softer than expected overall in France and Germany, analysts largely kept their forecasts for today's Eurozone HICP print intact (we published highlights of Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Nomura, and ING notes yesterday). Recall consensus coming into this week was HICP 2.7% Y/Y (2.9% prior) / HICP Core 3.2% Y/Y (3.4% prior):

  • Based on national prints, MNI currently tracks Y/Y Eurozone HICP at 2.7-2.8%, with Italy's print (+0.8% Y/Y expected) making the difference either way. Core HICP is roughly tracking 3.2-3.3% Y/Y which suggests modest upside vs the consensus coming into the week though we note some analysts eyeing potential for a print as high as 3.4% rounded.

Goldman Sachs:

  • On Eurozone: "We nudge up our Euro area headline inflation forecast 1bp to 2.71%yoy, and add 4bp to our core tracking estimate, now at 3.35%yoy [...] The upward revision to the core estimate comes from the stronger-than-expected sequential services inflation in the CPI print"
  • Core HICP forecasts: Germany 4.0% Y/Y

JP Morgan:

  • On Eurozone: "Continue to expect headline inflation to have come down a tenth to 2.8%oya [as the national surprises] to a large extent offset each others [...] likely decline in Euro area core inflation [...] to 3.2%oya"


  • On Eurozone: "Headline inflation likely resumed its downward adjustment in January, easing to 2.7% from 2.9% yoy, driven by core components and food items [...] We see core inflation slowing to 3.2% amid a further deceleration in goods prices, while services prices probably remained sticky"
  • On Italy: "We forecast CPI inflation rose by 0.2pp to 0.8% yoy in January [...] Our call reflects monthly increases in energy and food prices, while core inflation likely declined slightly [...] high uncertainty"


  • On Eurozone: "The data published by individual member states so far broadly support our forecast for aggregate Eurozone inflation [...] call for a slight decline to 2.8% yoy"
  • On Spain: "HICP accelerated [...] mainly due to higher electricity prices while core inflation receded."
  • On France: "prices for food, energy and manufactured products decelerated, but services inflation ticked up slightly"


  • On Germany: "inflation rate was much lower than we had expected. Apparently, the numerous government measures that came into effect at the turn of the year [...] caused the consumer price index to rise less sharply than we had previously assumed [...] the slight decline in the core inflation rate is solely due to a lower increase in goods prices [...] on the other hand, the inflation rate for services has risen again slightly"

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