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Highly Rated Pollster Shows Tight Presidential Race In Iowa

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Vice President Kamala Harris has, “significantly narrowed the presidential race in Iowa,” according to a new survey from the Des Moines Register conducted by J. Ann Selzer, widely considered one of the best pollsters in the country.

  • USA Today notes on the poll: “Trump leads Harris 47% to 43% among likely Iowa voters — a far slimmer margin than the 18-point lead the former Republican president enjoyed over Biden in late spring. Before Biden ended his reelection campaign, a June Iowa Poll showed Trump leading 50% to 32%.”
  • Selzer, said: “I wouldn’t say 4 points is comfortable…The race has tightened significantly,” adding that poll findings “signal a change in the mood of the electorate.”
  • Newsweek notes: “Former Democratic President Barack Obama won Iowa in 2008 and 2012, but the state has been largely viewed as solidly Republican since Trump's victory there in 2016 and 2020. The Cook Political Report currently rates the presidential race in Iowa as "solidly" Republican. However, the new polling suggests the Midwestern state might be in play.”

Figure 1: Recent 2024 Presidential Election Polling, Iowa

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Vice President Kamala Harris has, “significantly narrowed the presidential race in Iowa,” according to a new survey from the Des Moines Register conducted by J. Ann Selzer, widely considered one of the best pollsters in the country.

  • USA Today notes on the poll: “Trump leads Harris 47% to 43% among likely Iowa voters — a far slimmer margin than the 18-point lead the former Republican president enjoyed over Biden in late spring. Before Biden ended his reelection campaign, a June Iowa Poll showed Trump leading 50% to 32%.”
  • Selzer, said: “I wouldn’t say 4 points is comfortable…The race has tightened significantly,” adding that poll findings “signal a change in the mood of the electorate.”
  • Newsweek notes: “Former Democratic President Barack Obama won Iowa in 2008 and 2012, but the state has been largely viewed as solidly Republican since Trump's victory there in 2016 and 2020. The Cook Political Report currently rates the presidential race in Iowa as "solidly" Republican. However, the new polling suggests the Midwestern state might be in play.”

Figure 1: Recent 2024 Presidential Election Polling, Iowa

Keep reading...Show less