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Hochtief: Positive Credit Metrics, Small Upgrade To Consensus.

CAPITAL GOODS

Hochtief (HOT GY) 4Q23 results out with good credit metrics and a small upgrade to forward earnings expectations, we feel. The equity is trading up and the cash bonds are streaming 1-2bps tighter, which appears logical.


  • Key credit metrics: FCF from operations was up near-20% (to EUR1.3bn) and net cash is more than double the level a year ago, so good indications at the headline. The dividend policy remains unchanged.
  • Sales are 1% ahead of consensus (+4% y/y) with only Europe missing consensus. EBITDA was 2% ahead (flat y/y), and net profit was slightly ahead, too (+12% y/y). New orders were about EUR1bn (10%) lower than 3Q23 but only down 4% y/y. The order backlog is EUR55.3bn, similar to Sep-23 but 8% higher than Dec-22.
  • Outlook: operational net profit seen in a range, whose midpoint is 2% above current consensus (range: 560-610, midpoint: 575, consensus 572) so a small upgrade to earnings expectations there.

Conf call is 1530 London time.

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