Free Trial

Hogan With Strong Polling Lead In Maryland Senate Race

US

Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R) has a sizable lead over both his potential Democrat rivals in the race to fill the vacant Maryland Senate seat of outgoing Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD), according to a new survey from the Washington Post/University of Maryland.

  • If Hogan wins it would be a major shock in the deep blue state. Hogan's early polling advantage is likely due to his strong statewide name recognition from his popular stint as state governor and lack of familiarity with the Democrat candidates.
  • We expect the race to tighten significantly as the election draws closer and campaigning begins in earnest following the May 14 Democratic primary.
  • However, Hogan's strong performance may impact other races if Senate Democrat funds need to be diverted from other high profile races in Ohio, Montana, and Arizona. If Maryland were to flip Republican, it would likely block any route for Democrats to retain the Senate.

Figure 1: “If the election were being held today and the candidates were David Trone/Angela Alsobrooks, the Democrat, and Larry Hogan, the Republican, for whom would you vote?”

Source: Washington Post/University of Maryland

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.