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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
PHP
USD/PHP continues to hold close to the 57.00 level. We got to a high of 56.985 in the first part of trade today, but sit slightly lower now (last 56.97). Focus remains on BSP intervention around the 57.00 level. A clean break above this resistance point would pave the way for a move towards 57.15, then 57.55, levels which prevailed back in Nov 2022.
- Upside pressure remains in USD/PHP, particularly from resurgent oil prices. The chart below overlays oil (Brent, which is inverted on the chart) against the Philippines trade balance. To the extent we see a fresh widening in the Philippines trade deficit, it may see resistance at 57.00 give way.
- Broader USD gains, amid rising US yields, will also be a factor.
- Local equities are painting a more positive picture for PHP, but offshore participation is absent so far (-$309.9mn in net outflows this week).
- Rice prices are off recent highs (see this link), which will be welcomed by the BSP. We get September CPI next Thursday. Tomorrow delivers August bank lending data.
Fig 1: Philippines Trade Balance & Brent Crude Oil Price (Inverted)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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