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Holding Lower After Haven Trade Unwind, Thin Docket Ahead

US TSYS
  • Treasuries are off lows but still biased cheaper after a lack of weekend escalation in the Israel-Iran situation and U.S. fiscal support for Ukraine dominating most macro conversations.
  • Cash yields sit 0.5-3.5bp lower, bear steepening with 2s10s at -34bps (+2.5bps) although the latter remains off last week’s high of -27.8bps.
  • TYM4 trades at the lower end of the overnight range, currently at 107-210(-09) off a low of 107-17+, with solid cumulative volumes of 370k even if it’s low by last week’s particularly elevated standards.
  • The bearish trend structure remains in place with support at 107-13+ (Apr 16 low) after which lies Fibo projections starting with 107-07+.
  • Data: Chicago Fed national activity index Mar (0830ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $70B 13- and 26W Bill auctions (1130ET)
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