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Holds Near Post-RBA Highs But Outlook Remains Bearish


AUD/USD closed near its post-RBA highs, the pair spiked after the Central Bank left the taper on the table which came against the expectations of many. The pair did dip back to 0.7362 early in the US session but recovered the move. The rate last changing hands down 1 pip at 0.7395.

  • Markets will continue to digest the RBA announcement and focus remains on the domestic COVID-19 situation.
  • From a technical perspective AUD/USD remains in a range. The trend outlook is unchanged and bearish. This follows the recent breach of a channel base drawn from the Feb 25 high. Despite the fact that price has moved back inside the channel area, the move lower marks an important technical break, signalling potential for 0.7235 next, a 1.236 projection of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing. On the upside, initial resistance is at 0.7429, Jul 19 high.
  • Retail sales (both for June and in terms of Q2 volumes) headlines the Australian docket on Wednesday. Further afield, any trans-Tasman impetus from the latest round of NZ labour market data will be eyed, with the same holding true for the Chinese Caixin services & composite PMI readings.

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