MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Apr 26

The ESM, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and potentially Portugal are all due to come to the market next week. We expect E23.5bln of nominal gross issuance, up from E37.4bln last week. There are some huge redemptions totalling E55.1bln in the upcoming week, most notably from France and Spain.

• The ESM has issued an RFP with the intention of holding a syndicated transaction next week and we expect this on Monday. Notes that the ESM's funding target for Q2 is just E2.0bln, so we expect the transaction to be limited to this size.
• Italy will then come to the market on Tuesday. On offer will be E3.25-3.75bln of the 0% Nov-22 BTP Short Term, E0.5-1.0bln of the 0.65% May-26 BTPei and E0.5-0.75bln of the 0.15% May-51 BTPei.
• Also Tuesday, Germany will come to the market to launch the new Nov-28 Bund for E4bln.
• On Wednesday, the Netherlands will look to sell E1.5-2.5bln of the 0.50% Jul-26 DSL.
• Germany will return to the market on Wednesday, with E2.5bln of the 0% May-36 Bund on offer.
• Portugal will potentially come to the market on Wednesday, but no details are yet to be announced regarding whether this transaction will take place. Portugal could skip this provisional auction date given the syndicated launch of the new 10-year OT earlier this month.
• Italy will conclude issuance for the week (and month) on Thursday with MT/LT BTPs on offer. Details of the auction are due to be announced Monday.

REDEMPTIONS: E29.1bln of the 3.75% Apr-21 OAT is due on 25 April – the OAT was originally issued as a 15-year issue. E24.0bln of the Spanish 5.50% Apr-21 Obli (originally 10-year) is due to mature on Friday. There is also a E2.0bln Italy EMTN due to mature on 28 April.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: With E55.1bln of redemptions scheduled for the upcoming week and with chunky coupon payments of E15.8bln and gross nominal issuance of E23.5bln, we estimate net nominal flows of negative E47.4bln next week, this week saw a E37.4bln positive issuance.

For a recap of last week's issuance alongside graphical representations of issuance in the upcoming weeks and detailed tables of coupon and redemption schedules for the year ahead see the full document:

EZ260421.pdf