MNI NBP Preview - January 2024: Waiting To See

Executive Summary:

• Sell-side analysts are virtually unanimous in their call for another on-hold decision.
• Inflation fell more than forecast in December but the NBP has become more cautious.
• Earlier communications flagged the importance of the next macro projection due in March.

Full preview including a summary of sell-side views here:

MNI NBP Preview - January 2024.pdf

The consensus view is that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) will start the new year with another on-hold decision, despite a larger-than-expected decline in headline inflation rate in December. Although the extension of certain relief measures by the new government opens up room for continued disinflation, there are clear risks ahead of which the increasingly cautious Monetary Policy Council (MPC) is probably cognisant. The next turning point for the NBP could be the March meeting, when policymakers will receive an updated macro projection, accounting for fiscal and regulatory decisions of the new administration.