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Hormuz Strait Blockade Could Drive TTF to 95-180€/MWh: Aurora Energy

LNG

A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, controlled by Iran and Oman, could drive European benchmark Dutch TTF gas prices to average between 95-180€/MWh this winter amid limited flexibility to replace disrupted supply according to Montel citing Sophie Parsons at Aurora Energy Research.

  • One of the most extreme reactions from Iran in the event of an escalation of the Hamas-Israel conflict could be to enforce a blockade of shipping through the Hormuz Strait.
  • The likeliness of this scenario of Iran being drawn into a widening war with the US is low but it could halt shipments of all LNG out of the Persian Gulf impacting global markets.
  • LNG supplies from Qatar and UAE together account for about 120bcm/a or 22% of global LNG trade.

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