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Hotel Inflation Part Of The Goods > Services Shift (2/2)

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The magnitude of the October jump in hotel prices (vs -0.8% M/M average the prior 6 months, with no reading above 2%) suggests it could be a one off.

  • But this is part of the overarching story of goods demand moving into services demand: with vacations/travel picking up, and hotel occupancy levels well above 2021 levels (and back to 2019 levels), it doesn't look like a category that will contribute to broader disinflation going forward as it has for much of the past half-year.
  • Hotel price inflation never really hit the heights of the other pandemic reopening categories: while they picked up significantly in 2H 2021, that was from depressed pandemic levels.
  • Hotel prices are now up 12% from Feb 2020, having peaked at 14% above.
  • Used cars and auto rental are still 40% above pre-pandemic levels, and like airfares, lodging prices took longer to recover.

Source: BLS, MNI

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The magnitude of the October jump in hotel prices (vs -0.8% M/M average the prior 6 months, with no reading above 2%) suggests it could be a one off.

  • But this is part of the overarching story of goods demand moving into services demand: with vacations/travel picking up, and hotel occupancy levels well above 2021 levels (and back to 2019 levels), it doesn't look like a category that will contribute to broader disinflation going forward as it has for much of the past half-year.
  • Hotel price inflation never really hit the heights of the other pandemic reopening categories: while they picked up significantly in 2H 2021, that was from depressed pandemic levels.
  • Hotel prices are now up 12% from Feb 2020, having peaked at 14% above.
  • Used cars and auto rental are still 40% above pre-pandemic levels, and like airfares, lodging prices took longer to recover.

Source: BLS, MNI