November 10, 2022 15:03 GMT
Hotel Inflation Part Of The Goods > Services Shift (2/2)
The magnitude of the October jump in hotel prices (vs -0.8% M/M average the prior 6 months, with no reading above 2%) suggests it could be a one off.
- But this is part of the overarching story of goods demand moving into services demand: with vacations/travel picking up, and hotel occupancy levels well above 2021 levels (and back to 2019 levels), it doesn't look like a category that will contribute to broader disinflation going forward as it has for much of the past half-year.
- Hotel price inflation never really hit the heights of the other pandemic reopening categories: while they picked up significantly in 2H 2021, that was from depressed pandemic levels.
- Hotel prices are now up 12% from Feb 2020, having peaked at 14% above.
- Used cars and auto rental are still 40% above pre-pandemic levels, and like airfares, lodging prices took longer to recover.
Source: BLS, MNI