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HSBC Revise End-2024 and -2025 Inflation Forecasts Higher

TURKEY
  • Price pressures during the month were broad-based and reflected the impact of the 49% minimum wage hike, tax and administered price adjustments as well as other repricing, HSBC write. Following today's upside surprise, they revise up their estimates and now see end-2024 and end-2025 inflation at 47.9% and 29.0%, respectively (from 45.5% and 28.4%).
  • They add that the January outturn appears broadly in line with the bank's fan chart inflation projection published in November, which sees the headline rate ending the year at 36% (the mid-point of a wide forecast range of 30-42%). As a result, HSBC do not expect this print alone to trigger further hikes, even if the broader risks around the policy outlook remain tilted in this direction.
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  • Price pressures during the month were broad-based and reflected the impact of the 49% minimum wage hike, tax and administered price adjustments as well as other repricing, HSBC write. Following today's upside surprise, they revise up their estimates and now see end-2024 and end-2025 inflation at 47.9% and 29.0%, respectively (from 45.5% and 28.4%).
  • They add that the January outturn appears broadly in line with the bank's fan chart inflation projection published in November, which sees the headline rate ending the year at 36% (the mid-point of a wide forecast range of 30-42%). As a result, HSBC do not expect this print alone to trigger further hikes, even if the broader risks around the policy outlook remain tilted in this direction.