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HSBC Sees Terminal Rate at 3.25%

POLAND
  • NBP policymaking has been highly reactive over the past year, with a strong growth bias prompting the bank to hike in response to upside inflation surprises.
  • With no inflation data released between the January and February NBP meetings, HSBC had previously expected this approach to see rates remain on hold this month.
  • However, HSBC now thinks surging wage growth will prove sufficient to prompt the NBP to hike by at least 50bp when the MPC meets next week.
  • HSBC still sees a 50bp hike in March in response to the January inflation print, which analysts think will be the cycle peak, taking the policy rate to 3.25%.

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