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HUF Currently ‘Extremely Cheap’, with NEER HUF Trading Nearly 20% Below LT Average

HUNGARY
  • Since the start of the year, the war shock combined with the recent political uncertainty have left HUF vulnerable against the major crosses.
  • We have seen that the HUF currently trades significantly below its ‘fundamental’ value (-25% below its ‘fair’ BEER value).
  • This chart shows the dynamics of broad HUF (NEER) relative to its historical mean (using data since January 2000).
  • Not surprisingly, the HUF is currently extremely ‘cheap’ relative to its historical range, with the HUF NEER currently trading over 19% below its historical mean.
    • Historically, NEER FX tend to oscillate 15 percent below and above their LT average.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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