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HUF, PLN, CZK Outstrip EUR Gains

CEE FX
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market News
  • Another session of lower lows for EUR/HUF Monday, which extends the losing streak of lower lows to 15 of the past 16 sessions. This narrows the gap with the 200-dma, undercutting as next support at 386.20.
  • CEEMEA FX outperforming more broadly, with PLN, ZAR, CZK and others all similarly firm as the strength across core equity markets (e-mini S&P higher by 0.2%, Eurostoxx50 within range of cycle highs). Nonetheless, there remain a number of idiosyncratic drivers in key territories helping add a leg to recent strength:
  • Central banks still a key driver, with Wnorowski of the NBP this morning pointing to fading expectations of a rate cut this year and inflation expectations swinging higher, Czech CPI coming in firmer than expected (+0.7% vs. Exp. +0.2%) and an expected bottoming-out in Hungarian inflation across the summer.
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  • Another session of lower lows for EUR/HUF Monday, which extends the losing streak of lower lows to 15 of the past 16 sessions. This narrows the gap with the 200-dma, undercutting as next support at 386.20.
  • CEEMEA FX outperforming more broadly, with PLN, ZAR, CZK and others all similarly firm as the strength across core equity markets (e-mini S&P higher by 0.2%, Eurostoxx50 within range of cycle highs). Nonetheless, there remain a number of idiosyncratic drivers in key territories helping add a leg to recent strength:
  • Central banks still a key driver, with Wnorowski of the NBP this morning pointing to fading expectations of a rate cut this year and inflation expectations swinging higher, Czech CPI coming in firmer than expected (+0.7% vs. Exp. +0.2%) and an expected bottoming-out in Hungarian inflation across the summer.