DALY SEES 'NO URGENCY TO ADJUST THE POLICY RATE'

MNI BRIEF: Fed’s Collins Sees Rate Cuts Later Than Had Thought

MNI BRIEF: China March M2 Slows More Than Expected

MNI BRIEF: China Tightens Stock Market Supervision

MNI BRIEF: China Mar Exports Jump On Demand; Imports Improve

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.0967 Fri; -4.87% Y/Y

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 617; OIL RIGS 506; GAS RIGS 109

March Home Sales Jumped At End Of Month

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

MNI BRIEF: Lawmakers Signal Tough Hearing For BOC's Macklem

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Huge CPI Relief Rally Holds

US TSYS

Huge relief rally in rates (30YY taps 4.0623% low vs 4.2884% high) and stocks (ESZ2 +191.5 at 3947.0) after lower than expected Oct CPI (+0.4% MoM vs. 0.6% est, core +0.27% unrounded vs forecast of 0.5%) cooled rate hike expectations: Dec cumulative down to 49.8bp vs. 57.5bp earlier, 84.7bp to 4.69% for Feb'23 with terminal in May'23 at 4.885%.

  • Upbeat but cautious comments from various Fed speakers on the day:
    • Dallas Fed Logan: "While I believe it may soon be appropriate to slow the pace of rate increases so we can better assess how financial and economic conditions are evolving, I also believe a slower pace should not be taken to represent easier policy," she said in openings remarks at a Fed conference.
    • Cleveland President Loretta Mester: “Despite the moves we have made so far, given that inflation has consistently proven to be more persistent than expected and there are significant costs of continued high inflation, I currently view the larger risks as coming from tightening too little."
  • Trading desks note some prop/fast$ selling on the highs, technical selling after Tsy 10Y futures crossed 50-day EMA of 112-12.5 to 112-17 high (+2-06.5), to 112-10 last.
  • Tys climb back near midday highs after strong $21B 30Y auction (912810TL2): 3.2bp stop-through with 4.080% high yield vs. 4.112% WI; 2.42x bid-to-cover vs. 2.39x prior month.
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.