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IBR Swap Rates Shift Significantly Lower Amid Villar Comments

COLOMBIA
  • Wires are citing the earlier comments from BanRep Governor Villar as assisting the move lower for IBR swap rates on Wednesday. The move in local swaps stands out in the region, with 5 year-IBR moving as much as 20bps lower on the session. As a reminder, Villar stated that inflation is still much higher than the target, but it is easing, and it will come down to target by end of 2024.
  • For reference, the latest survey of economists for August showed that, according to the sample median, inflation expectations had been revised upward to 5% by the end of 2024. Villar’s comments may bolster the case that the central bank is confident on a more rapid downward trajectory for CPI. Furthermore, the latest BanRep minutes highlighted that economic activity continued to decelerate, consistent with the technical staff’s projections, enough to sway two directors to vote for a 25bp rate cut.
  • Colombia IBR Swaps:
    • 1-yr -9 bps at 11.81%
    • 2-yr -17 bps at 9.96%
    • 5-yr -20 bps at 9.18%
    • 10-yr -18 bps at 9.35%
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