ICJ Ruling Could Complicate Diplomatic Landscape

The UN's International Court of Justice has issued its interim ruling regarding a genocide case brought by South Africa against Israel for the latter's actions in Gaza as part of its war against Hamas. The ruling does not order a ceasefire. However it does issue an emergency order saying that Israel must take all measures in its power to stop anything in relation to genocide in Gaza; to prevent and punish those involved with inciting genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip; and to ensure the provision of humanitarian aid and basic services. Israel must submit a report within one month on the issues raised.

• The interim ruling is not a verdict on the issue of genocide. That decision could take many years to be reached.
• The immediate short-term impact on the ground is not likely to be significant. There is no ceasefire order, and even if there was one there is no guarantee that it would be obeyed.
• The larger impact could come in the diplomatic sphere. Should Israel be seen to be falling short of the issues raised in the emergency order, it could put the country's allies - most notably in the US - in a bind. The US and others have raised ICJ rulings being seemingly ignored by their adversaries, and could find it difficult to maintain the current level of support for Israel if the country is seen to be flouting ICJ rulings.