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ICYMI: OECD Expects Global Growth Slowdown But Inflation Pervasive

GLOBAL

The OECD published its updated Economic Outlook and is expecting global growth to slow to 2.2% in 2023 from 3.1% this year before recovering to 2.7% in 2024. All three years are below the 2013-19 average of 3.4% but a global recession is not expected.

  • Asia is projected to drive global growth in 2023. Downside risks to the outlook stem from tighter financial conditions and the ongoing war in the Ukraine. The OECD’s secretary general Cormann said that the “most impactful way to improve the global economic outlook” is peace in Ukraine.
  • OECD 2023 inflation is expected to moderate 6.5% from 9.4% this year. It should come down further to 5.1% in 2024, which is still above central banks’ inflation targets. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed the share of GDP now being spent on energy to 17.7%, close to the highs of the second oil crisis in the 1980s. And higher energy prices have made inflation pervasive.
  • The OECD recommends that central banks continue to raise rates where needed to contain inflation – “fighting inflation has to be our top policy priority right now”.
  • OECD fiscal deficits are expected to narrow from 3.7% of GDP this year to 3.1% by 2024. They recommend fiscal restraint so that policy doesn’t add to inflation.
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