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Free AccessIEA and Rystad Forecast Earlier Peak Gasoline Demand in China
IEA and Rystad Energy have brought forward forecasts of peak gasoline demand in China to 2024 due to rising electric vehicle sales, while PetroChina and Sinopec see a peak in 2025.
- IEA expects Chinese gasoline demand to peak in 2024 at about 3.7mbpd compared to a previous projection for demand to plateau in 2025/2026.
- Rystad forecast the peak at 3.7mbpd as early as the Q1 2024, compared with an earlier projection between 2024 and 2025.
- An earlier gasoline demand peak will drive increased exports from China and force refiners to switch to make more naphtha, diesel and jet fuel according to Reuters.
- The EV share in China increased to 28% in Jan-May up from 9% in the same period of 2021, while the share for petrol cars fell from 91% to 72% according to China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
- IEA forecast global gasoline markets could move into a surplus from 2025 with gasoline consumption in the US already peaking in 2019. The surplus could rise to about 1.3mbpd by 2028 in the absence of any significant output adjustments by refiners.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.