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IEA Forecast European Gas Shortfall Next Summer

NATURAL GAS

European gas supplies and storage filling rates face significant hurdles next summer, highlighted by the IEA.

  • Russian flows are expected to drop between 35-60 bcm in 2023 while a recovery of China's LNG imports to their 2021 levels would severely limit Europe's access to any additional LNG, considering that LNG supply would increase by just 20 bcm in 2023.
  • These factors could result in a gas gap of 30 bcm during the 2023 injection season, when storage sites are filled up.
  • Without that 30 bcm, storage sites would be filled just up to 65% or their capacity by 2023/24 heating season, well-below the levels needed for a safe and secure winter.

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European gas supplies and storage filling rates face significant hurdles next summer, highlighted by the IEA.

  • Russian flows are expected to drop between 35-60 bcm in 2023 while a recovery of China's LNG imports to their 2021 levels would severely limit Europe's access to any additional LNG, considering that LNG supply would increase by just 20 bcm in 2023.
  • These factors could result in a gas gap of 30 bcm during the 2023 injection season, when storage sites are filled up.
  • Without that 30 bcm, storage sites would be filled just up to 65% or their capacity by 2023/24 heating season, well-below the levels needed for a safe and secure winter.