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IEA Gas Highlights: LNG Supply Wave Overturns Gas Market


Starting in 2025, supply for LNG is set to increase as a wave of new projects come online, adding 250 bcm/y by 2030, according to the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2023.

  • A large jump in supply will come between 2025-2027 as many projects under development are set for initial production. Half of the new projects are in the USA or Qatar.
  • Additional LNG online comes at an uncertain moment for natural gas demand. Demand growth has slowed considerably since its “golden age” of the 2010s, the IEA said.
  • The IEA estimates that more than one-third of the new gas will be offered to buyers on the short-term spot market.
  • Regarding demand, the IEA expects demand to peak this decade. Mature markets, particularly Europe, are heading to stronger structural decline. Meanwhile, emerging markets are lacking the infrastructure needed to absorb larger volumes China’s gas demand slows.
  • The flood of LNG and slowing demand leaves few opportunities for Russia to establish new markets. Russia’s share of internationally traded gas, which was 30% in 2021, is expected to decline by half by 2030 in the IEA’s stated energy policies scenario.

Source: IEA

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