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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)
IFO Q1 2023 GDP FORECAST -0.2% Q/Q
- The Ifo Spring Economic Forecast is expecting a two-quarter recession for the German economy. Ifo projects a -0.2% q/q contraction for the German economy in the first quarter of 2023, after -0.4% q/q in Q4.
- Persistently high inflation rates alongside rising borrowing costs has dampened household demand and the construction sector.
- Yet the industrial sector is recovering through substantial declines in energy prices and improvements in supply chains. Marked catch-up potential exists for energy-intensive sectors this year, which began to recover in January as energy prices cooled.
- The economy is projected to begin to recover after Q1, according to Ifo. Total growth is forecasted to be stagnant at -0.1% for 2023, recovering to +1.7% in 2024.
- IFO sees private consumption spending falling -0.8% in 2023, then recovering to +1.6% in 2024. The labour market is expected to remain robust, with unemployment only edging up 0.1pp from 2022 to 5.4% in 2023 largely due to the integration of Ukrainian citizens.
- Inflationary pressures are set to remain sticky throughout 2023, before cooling in 2024. IFO sees CPI averaging +6.2% in 2023 (+6.3% for core), then falling back to +2.2% in 2024, whilst core remains more elevated at +2.8% y/y in 2024. Core CPI been upwardly revised from Ifo's Winter projections, boosted by wage pressures.
Source: IFO, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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