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Imacec Data Tomorrow, Itaú Says Activity Dynamics Remain Weak In July

CHILE
  • A reminder of the important economic activity data in Chile tomorrow where monthly data is expected to decline 0.1%, according to the median estimate in the Bloomberg survey. The data comes a few days before Tuesday’s BCCh decision.
  • Itaú have noted that overall, widespread non-mining contractions in manufacturing and retail sales, along with weak mining dynamics will keep sequential activity downbeat. They keep a downside bias to their +0.9% Y/y call for the July monthly GDP proxy. The positive annual print is muddled by less demanding base effects from last year’s extension of school vacation, and the IMACEC is expected to revert to a negative print in August.
  • Itaú expect activity to remain weak in the short-term bottoming out in the third quarter of 2023. A prolonged contractionary monetary policy, along with still downbeat business sentiment should prevent a significant recovery in activity performance during the rest of this year. Itaú are expecting a GDP contraction of 0.5% this year.
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