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Impact of High Prices Limiting Upside in Product Crack Spreads

OIL PRODUCTS

US gasoline demand in August was better than expected but still lower than last year according to the latest monthly EIA data. The monthly gasoline data was revised 206kbpd higher than the weekly data for the month. Distillate demand was also revised higher for the month with overall petroleum supplied up 547kbpd compared to the weekly data. Vitol expect oil demand to continue to fall for several months due to high prices according to CEO Russell Hardy yesterday.

  • Concerns for the impact of high prices and the global economic outlook have limited gains in the crack spreads despite the low stocks and tight supplies. The US diesel crack has pulled back from the peak of 86$/bbl earlier in October to around 67$/bbl but is still three time higher than the start of the year levels. The US gasoline supplies are not as tight after lower demand over the summer months, but the crack spread is still up at 20$/bbl compared to around 15$/bbl at the start of the year.
    • Brent JAN 23 up 2% at 94.67$/bbl
    • WTI DEC 22 up 2.1% at 88.35$/bbl
    • US 321 crack down -0.6$/bbl at 35.19$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0$/bbl at 19.59$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down -2.1$/bbl at 66.39$/bbl

Source: Bloomberg

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