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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
BoE hike pricing for February firmed by around 2bp following Chief Economist Huw Pill's speech on the monetary policy outlook today, to 44bp (flat on the session). This was seen as triggered by comments regarding the potential persistence of inflation influencing his monetary policy stance in the coming months.
- However, further down the strip, hike pricing softened after an initial sell-off, with some eyeing Pill's apparently more dovish tone on labour market slack.
- The BoE hike cycle is now seen peaking after 105bp of further hikes by Aug/Sep 2023, off 3bp since the Pill speech and 9bp on the day. The 4.55% terminal Bank rate implied is the lowest since the December MPC meeting.
- Meanwhile ECB hike pricing remained fairly firm, still implying 48bp of hikes in Feb (92% chance of 50bp vs 25bp), with 147bp in hikes seen through the rest of the cycle to a deposit rate just below 3.50%.
- As we noted earlier, more interesting moves are occurring further down the strip, with the market pricing in an increasingly aggressive easing cycle following the Q3 2023 ECB rate peak.
Source: BBG, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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