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Implied Rate Cuts For Year-End Recede

US TSY FUTURES
  • Yield curves bear flattening post data, short end under pressure (TUM3 -9.25 to 103-13 low) resulting in Implied rate cuts for year end receding while May and Jun implied hikes gain slightly.
  • Fed funds implied hike for May'23 is currently at 17.9bp, Jun'23 +16.6bp cumulative at 4.992%.
  • Projected rate cuts later in the year recede: Sep'23 cumulative -14.4bp (-36.6bp earlier) to 4.680%, to -49.2bp for Dec'23 (-84.9bp Wed) at 4.329%.
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