EUROZONE DATA
The Eurozone wage tracker published by job listing company Indeed shows growth slowed to 3.33% Y/Y in March, the third consecutive deceleration. Also the 3-month moving average annual rate slowed to 3.67% (vs 3.91% prior) in its first moderation after three consecutive upticks.
- The slowdown in growth was broad-based across countries.
- German Y/Y wage growth clearly decelerated and tracked at 3.8% in February (vs 4.4% prior), the second-lowest since December 2021, while the 3mma measure also decreased to 4.2% (vs 4.4% prior).
- Spain again saw the most disinflationary national-level dynamics, with Y/Y wage growth tracking at 2.8% Y/Y in March (vs 3.8% prior), while the 3mma measure also decreased to 3.8% (vs 4.5% prior), its lowest value since September 2022.
- Indeed also tracks Italian wages, though this data is not always updated consistently, so we avoid reading much into the data.
- The ECB's March projections included a slowdown in compensation per employee growth in Q1, to 4.4% Y/Y (the Q4 final reading was 4.6% Y/Y). While on a methodological basis this is not a like-for-like comparison, there is no evidence here that there are upside risks to the ECB's projection (though neither are there major downside risks: the Indeed tracker was lower than the ECB comp projections by 0.7pp on average in Q1, and the final Q4 2023 reading by 0.8pp).
- March's moderation in indicative wages will be another argument in favour of the more dovish cohort of the Governing Council.
MNI, Indeed.com
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