Indonesia's Public Health Crisis Deepens, Gov't Sees Slower Growth This Quarter

The rupiah has been rangebound in early Asia-Pac trade, with Indonesia's deepening public health crisis seemingly priced in. Spot USD/IDR last sits at IDR14,470, 7 figures lower on the day. Further losses past Jun 28 low of IDR14,415 would bring the 50-DMA (IDR14,368) into view. Conversely, a jump above Jul 2 high of IDR14,568 would turn focus to IDR14,633-14,635, which capped gains on Apr 13 - 15.

• USD/IDR 1-month NDF last seen -6 figures at IDR14,514. A retreat under the 100-DMA at IDR14,443 would please bears, while bulls look for a break above Jun 29 high of IDR14,666.
• During yesterday's media briefing, FinMin Indrawati warned that Indonesia's GDP growth could slow to +4.0% Y/Y in Q3 (prev. forecast was +6.5%) as the authorities struggle to contain a surge in Covid-19 infections. Indrawati estimated that the economy could still grow by close to 5.0% this quarter if the current wave of coronavirus is contained this month. On Q2 GDP, Indrawati said that the economy likely expanded by 7.0%, which would put H1 growth at +3.1%-3.3%. She suggested that the outlook remains uncertain and much depends on the local Covid-19 situation. Econ Affairs Min Hartarto added that 2021 growth could register at +3.7%-4.5% vs. the gov't's prev. forecast of +4.5%-5.3%.
• Meanwhile, Indonesia continues its battle against the relentless surge in new Covid-19 cases, exacerbated by severe ICU bed shortages and an oxygen crisis. Some patients seeking emergency treatment have had to be turned away over the recent days, while CNN Indonesia reported that dozens of patients died in one hospital over the weekend, after the facility ran out of oxygen.
• Econ Min Hartarto appears alongside FSA Chair Santoso at a webinar on the economic outlook today.
• Indonesia's official consumer sentiment gauge will be released on Thursday, with Danareksa Consumer Confidence due for release at some point this week.