Indonesian Sovereign Curves Flatten, Reverse Tuesday's Move

Indonesian USD sovereign debt yields have reversed their move higher from Tuesday, with yields 1-3 bps lower on today, although still underperforming the overnight movement by US Treasuries.

• The 2Y yield is unchanged at 4.88%, the 10Y yield is 2 bps lower at 5.00%, while the 5-year CDS is up 0.25 bps to 71.75 bps.
• The spread difference between USD Indonesian and US Treasury yields has been closing over the past month, although it lagged the move from US Treasuries overnight. The 2Y spread is now 32 bps (+3 bps overnight), still considerably tighter than a month prior when the spread was 48 bps, while the 10Y spread is now 85 bps, unchanged from a month prior.
• In cross-market moves, the USD/IDR is 0.24% lower, the JCI is 0.20% higher, while US Tsys yields are 0-1 bp lower.
• Foreign investors sold Indonesian debt on Monday and Tuesday, with -$120 million exiting the market. Short-term, investors have largely been sellers, with a 20-day average daily flow currently at -$29 million, while longer-term trends still remain positive with the 100-day average at +$6.2 million.
• On Tuesday, Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo expressed confidence that the economy would grow by over 5 percent this year, anticipating a swift conclusion to the presidential election, expected to alleviate pressure and minimize disruptions. With Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto projected to secure an outright win, Perry urged businesses to invest actively, emphasizing the favorable conditions for profit generation.
• Looking Ahead: Feb Foreign Reserves are Due out on Thursday